Yes, it’s been a tough year. You don’t need the recap. But as tough as this year has been, the biggest challenge for most small business owners is trying to figure out what’s next to come. Many that I speak to complain about the unprecedented uncertainty that seems to surround everything. 

And yet, I’m not so sure. There’s always uncertainty, even in good times. Uncertainty is the backbone of free markets. People place bets on outcomes that they know aren’t certain and for some those bets pay off and for others…well…you know.

But really, are things all that uncertain? I can actually argue that there are at least six things going on in the economy and the world that will have very certain outcomes. Because even when things seem bleak and unpredictable, certain things always come true. We know this.

There will be a presidential election in the fall.  

We know this. And we know that either Donald Trump or Joe Biden will be elected. We also know that all of Congress is up for grabs as well as a third of the Senate. You may think all this is creating uncertainty. I say it’s not. That’s because with just a little research it’s quite easy to understand where both presidential candidates, as well as their parties, stand on all the issues – healthcare, taxes, growth, labor – that affect our businesses. We may not know who will be elected but we certainly know now how that leader’s policies will impact our companies…and we can plan for that eventuality well in advance of it happening.

There will be a vaccine and better treatments for Covid-19. 

Most scientists are certain of this. In fact, many doctors are already reporting improved methodologies for treating the disease which are contributing to much lower death rates. We’re not certain of the timeframe of a vaccine – it could be by the end of the year or a year after that. But there are dozens of companies working on this as I write and a few are quite far along in the process. It’s certain that a vaccine won’t cure all because no vaccine does. But it’s also certain that when these vaccines are released they will help to significantly reduce the infection rate and give more ease to the public – the consumers that ultimately buy our products or products that contain our products. In other words, this will be over at some point.

There will be an economic recovery.

Why? Because there always is. Economies run in cycles and this recession is no different. As hard hit as we are, it’s already apparent – given the most recent economic data – that the bottom has been reached and some indicators are back on the rise. True, we’re not sure when a full recovery will take place and we don’t know how quick that recovery will be. But if you know your history you know that these things right themselves. That’s certain. Our job is to navigate our businesses prudently until this actually occurs.

The stock market was once above 29,000. 

 In fact, the Dow was 29,551.42 set on Feb. 12, 2020, only five months ago. If there’s one thing any stock market analyst will tell you is that once a market reaches a high, it will one day reach it again and surpass it. Every stock market rally has proven that. So it’s certain that someday the markets will reach and exceed 29,552.42.  What we’re not certain about is when and if there are more potential precipitous drops between now and then. Of course, if we knew that we’d be able to predict the future and therefore we’d be rich. But one thing’s for sure: it’s going to get back there someday. That’s for certain.

There are exciting new technologies on the way.  

The pandemic proved that working from home is a viable workplace option. But that’s just the start. Big companies around the world, and particularly in the U.S., are well on the way to developing technologies that will fundamentally alter our lives over the next few years, including artificial intelligence, driverless cars, drones, virtual reality, voice recognition and a host of other cool stuff. Will this all be positive? Probably not because humans are adept at creating one new problem for every two they solve (another certainty). But most of us know that, thanks to and because of these technologies, the world for our kids and grandkids will be much different than ours right now. Some will profit and prosper from this stuff and many will be better off. That’s also a certainty.

Our business fundamentals haven’t changed.

Regardless of vaccines, markets and technologies one thing’s for sure: you still need to sell something for a price higher than you paid for it in order to make a profit. You still need manage your cash prudently. You still need to hire great people to grow your business. You still need to work hard and run an ethical business to succeed. These are not just fundamentals. They are business certainties and none of them have changed or will change regardless of what happens.